Saturday, November 5, 2011

Indonesia palm oil prospect

In order to study Indonesia palm oil prospect, it is needs to estimate the market opportunities (increased consumption) in the world market. Based on the previous estimation, the consumption level until 2025 is expected to range between 41.45 - 44.45 million tons. On the other hand, world CPO production in 2004 was 25.67 million tons. Thus, the chance to increase production until 2025 is ranged from 15.78 - 18.78 million tons.
With a fairly open market opportunity both in terms of world exports or consumption, CPO producing countries will try to exploit these market prospect. Malaysia and Indonesia is to lead this competition. As expected, Malaysia as the main producer is expected to take these opportunities with increased production at a rate of 2.8% -1.5% per year. Indonesia is predicted to increase production at a rate between 3.0% -7.6% per year.
There are several arguments told that with the support of consistent and effective policy, associated with the Indonesia palm oil prospect, this country is expected to capitalize on most of these market opportunities. The main factor is the availability of land that is still quite large. The availability of land suitable for palm plantation in Indonesia reaches about 2.9 million ha. On the other hand, Malaysia faced difficulties because of the very limited land for expansion. Other countries such as Thailand, etc. are also not predicted as the real competitor because of their limited land, and its policy which not putting palm oil as a commodity. Nigeria palm oil output is estimated to be only sufficient to meet their domestic needs.
With this argument, Malaysia is predicted to take the opportunities by 20% (3.16 - 3.76 million tons) and approximately 40% (6.31 to 7.51 million) will be utilized by other states. Indonesia is estimated to take the greatest prospect to utilize about 40% or about 6.31 to 7.51 million. This means that with the assumption that productivity is about 3.5 tons of CPO / ha, they have a chance to expand between 1.80 - 2.15 million ha. If the expansion carried out between the years 2005-2025, then every year they should expand about 120 -140 thousand hectares to support their palm oil prospect.

Related archives:
The development of palm oil downstream industry
World palm oil producers
Tax change effect on palm oil trade
World palm oil production
Threats to palm oil business

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